FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.32 – 8.19

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.1 ±9.8

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 20.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 11.1Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 22.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 105.2 ±11.7

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX -8.36Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 26.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX -9.73Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8430, 6167, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 6167, 10367

Auto

24.4 53%

Teleop

12.7 28%

Endgame

8.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3976, 11254, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3976, 11254, 1293

Auto

7.0 97%

Teleop

-5.7 0%

Endgame

5.9 82%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.3pts

Blue projected score8.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.1
Score range: -7–69
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 83.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.1Season APEX105.2

24.4Auto7

12.7Teleop-5.7

8.9Endgame5.9

65Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	33	21
endgame	33	1
foul	0	15
total	86	58

Result

Final score

86 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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