FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.78 – 64.67

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.8 ±9.8

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 45.74Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 46.5Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 9.54Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.4 ±9.8

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 47.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 7.07Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 10Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 342, 3490

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4451, 342, 3490

Auto

10.7 11%

Teleop

38.7 39%

Endgame

50.0 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8116, 4533, 8137

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8116, 4533, 8137

Auto

11.6 20%

Teleop

38.3 65%

Endgame

8.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.8pts

Blue projected score64.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.1
Score range: 50–117
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 82.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.8Season APEX224.4

10.7Auto11.6

38.7Teleop38.3

50Endgame8.7

30Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	125	24
endgame	53	11
foul	0	5
total	197	56

Result

Final score

197 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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