FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.16 – 30.52

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.9 ±10.2

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 8.86Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 65.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 198.15Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.9 ±10.4

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 22.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 4.7Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 2.93Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3976, 4451, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3976, 4451, 9496

Auto

54.0 20%

Teleop

146.1 53%

Endgame

73.1 27%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11424, 4533, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.5 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11424, 4533, 10591

Auto

10.6 41%

Teleop

14.9 58%

Endgame

0.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.2pts

Blue projected score30.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.6
Score range: 13–290
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.9Season APEX148.9

54Auto10.6

146.1Teleop14.9

73.1Endgame0.2

0Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	112	6
endgame	95	0
foul	0	0
total	224	15

Result

Final score

224 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree