FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.13 – 26.93

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 1.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.4 ±9.8

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 29.03Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 35.18Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 20.92Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.9 ±9.8

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -16.73Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX -4.2Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 47.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10619, 7085, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10619, 7085, 11254

Auto

25.1 33%

Teleop

36.4 48%

Endgame

13.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3489, 10591, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3489, 10591, 4451

Auto

-0.4 0%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

22.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score26.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.2
Score range: 12–100
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 81.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.4Season APEX284.9

25.1Auto-0.4

36.4Teleop-3.7

13.7Endgame22.8

0Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	46	13
endgame	14	0
foul	0	0
total	83	27

Result

Final score

83 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 1.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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