FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.89 – 58.26

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±9.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 10.03Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -7.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 191.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.7 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.38Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 24.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 22.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4864, 10231, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4864, 10231, 9496

Auto

59.0 30%

Teleop

95.6 49%

Endgame

42.1 21%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 6366, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3490, 6366, 10367

Auto

21.7 35%

Teleop

28.5 46%

Endgame

11.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.9pts

Blue projected score58.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.6
Score range: 44–208
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 79.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.6Season APEX292.7

59Auto21.7

95.6Teleop28.5

42.1Endgame11.8

97Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	18
teleop	153	20
endgame	50	30
foul	10	10
total	257	78

Result

Final score

257 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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