FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.54 – 84.31

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.2 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 29.49Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 27.09Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 25.96Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±10.4

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 15.68Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 23.31Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 45.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 342, 11424, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 342, 11424, 11254

Auto

28.7 33%

Teleop

45.7 53%

Endgame

11.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8137, 3490, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8137, 3490, 7085

Auto

16.8 23%

Teleop

42.8 58%

Endgame

13.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.5pts

Blue projected score84.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.8
Score range: 69–98
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 76.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.2Season APEX160.1

28.7Auto16.8

45.7Teleop42.8

11.5Endgame13.7

60Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	64	18
endgame	32	21
foul	0	0
total	121	53

Result

Final score

121 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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