FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.78 – 34.21

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.8 ±9.8

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 24.28Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 41.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 16.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.8 ±9.3

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 40.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -20.68Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 14.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10367, 4451, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 4451, 4864

Auto

8.1 12%

Teleop

34.0 50%

Endgame

26.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 3489, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 3489, 11167

Auto

26.3 100%

Teleop

-4.8 0%

Endgame

-5.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.8pts

Blue projected score34.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.6
Score range: 20–96
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 79.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.8Season APEX190.8

8.1Auto26.3

34Teleop-4.8

26Endgame-5.2

101Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	32	17
endgame	41	13
foul	0	5
total	89	60

Result

Final score

89 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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