FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.72 – 186.97

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.4 ±12.2

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX -1.1Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -13.05Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10361Gatorbots

Season APEX 35Event APEX 23.87Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.1 ±9.4

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 12.63Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 155.73Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 18.61Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3976, 10231, 10361

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.7 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3976, 10231, 10361

Auto

-6.1 0%

Teleop

7.1 42%

Endgame

16.1 94%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11254, 9496, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

187 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11254, 9496, 11398

Auto

58.6 31%

Teleop

84.7 45%

Endgame

44.9 24%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.37 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.7pts

Blue projected score187pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -177.2
Score range: -4–201
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 76.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.4Season APEX395.1

-6.1Auto58.6

7.1Teleop84.7

16.1Endgame44.9

42Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	82
teleop	10	141
endgame	0	47
foul	0	0
total	20	270

Result

Final score

20 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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