FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.64 – 69.05

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 4.59Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 38.51Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 41.54Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.3 ±9.8

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 21.39Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 13.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 33.8Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 8430, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4533, 8430, 4451

Auto

14.0 17%

Teleop

50.7 60%

Endgame

20.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8137, 4864, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8137, 4864, 1648

Auto

16.6 23%

Teleop

41.6 59%

Endgame

12.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.6pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.6
Score range: 55–99
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 77.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX243.3

14Auto16.6

50.7Teleop41.6

20.1Endgame12.7

43Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	12	29
endgame	18	8
foul	60	5
total	99	61

Result

Final score

99 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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