FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.99 – 76.58

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 21.53Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 22.76Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 3.7Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 34.76Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 31.48Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 10.34Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10367, 11254, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

48 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 11254, 6167

Auto

14.4 39%

Teleop

12.1 32%

Endgame

10.8 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 11424, 10619

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3490, 11424, 10619

Auto

15.5 21%

Teleop

42.9 58%

Endgame

15.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48pts

Blue projected score76.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.6
Score range: 35–90
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 69.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.6Season APEX197

14.4Auto15.5

12.1Teleop42.9

10.8Endgame15.1

151Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	19
teleop	54	13
endgame	11	12
foul	0	0
total	92	44

Result

Final score

92 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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