FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.46 – 4.2

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

11 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±11.2

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 44.54Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 24.81Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 52.11Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.6 ±10.4

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -11.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 7.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 7.59Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10619, 3976, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10619, 3976, 10388

Auto

28.3 24%

Teleop

51.8 43%

Endgame

39.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10231, 10367, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10231, 10367, 11398

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

1.9 51%

Endgame

1.8 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score4.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.3
Score range: -9–134
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 63 vs event baseline 72.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.3Season APEX148.6

28.3Auto0

51.8Teleop1.9

39.2Endgame1.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	24
teleop	0	17
endgame	3	11
foul	0	0
total	11	52

Result

Final score

11 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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