FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.66 – 144.11

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 169.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±8.8

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 78.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 10.16Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 212.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±10.5

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 65.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10361Gatorbots

Season APEX 35Event APEX 13.94Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 64.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 1293, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1648, 1293, 9496

Auto

69.6 23%

Teleop

157.5 52%

Endgame

73.4 24%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4451, 10361, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4451, 10361, 342

Auto

19.6 14%

Teleop

71.0 51%

Endgame

47.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.7pts

Blue projected score144.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.6
Score range: 126–320
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 98.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX346.7

69.6Auto19.6

157.5Teleop71

73.4Endgame47.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	18
teleop	201	25
endgame	75	28
foul	5	35
total	0	106

Result

Final score

0 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 169.9 pts

Match videos

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