Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

523.52 – 241.61

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

588 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.6 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 241.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 26.13Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 255.43Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.7 ±9.3

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 40.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 115.92Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 84.95Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 10063, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

523.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 10063, 5687

Auto

111.7 22%

Teleop

297.6 58%

Endgame

102.4 20%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 10254, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 10254, 1699

Auto

42.5 19%

Teleop

115.1 50%

Endgame

70.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score523.5pts

Blue projected score241.6pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 281.9
Score range: 209–557
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 890 vs event baseline 185.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.6Season APEX610.7

111.7Auto42.5

297.6Teleop115.1

102.4Endgame70.4

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	38
teleop	288	203
endgame	68	61
foul	95	0
total	588	302

Result

Final score

588 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 pts

Match videos

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