Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.59 – 126.17

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.8 ±10.4

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 27.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 116.25Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 61.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±10.4

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 56.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 44.29Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 25.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10973, 78, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 78, 1153

Auto

38.8 19%

Teleop

121.4 60%

Endgame

42.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 5112, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 5112, 8544

Auto

33.4 28%

Teleop

58.2 49%

Endgame

26.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.6pts

Blue projected score126.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.4
Score range: 93–239
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 185.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.8Season APEX354.9

38.8Auto33.4

121.4Teleop58.2

42.5Endgame26.3

12Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	25
teleop	180	90
endgame	43	57
foul	20	0
total	309	172

Result

Final score

309 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 pts

Match videos

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