Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.47 – 161.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.7 ±9.3

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 30.26Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 105.61Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 73.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±11.7

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 30.32Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 48.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 82.67Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 10254, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 10254, 1699

Auto

37.4 19%

Teleop

90.7 46%

Endgame

69.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2168, 2079, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 2079, 1119

Auto

39.7 25%

Teleop

79.4 51%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.5pts

Blue projected score161.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.6
Score range: 129–242
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 184.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.7Season APEX353.4

37.4Auto39.7

90.7Teleop79.4

69.3Endgame36.9

73Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	33
teleop	217	72
endgame	73	61
foul	20	0
total	374	166

Result

Final score

374 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Match videos

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