Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
279.29 – 277.96
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
278 – 310
Prediction missed · off by 16.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.8 ±9.9
Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 29.04Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 111.8Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 138.45Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 52.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269Event APEX 127.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 97.45Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6620, 6324, 5000
79
/ 100 compatProjected
279.3 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 6620, 6324, 5000
Auto
47.0 17%
Teleop
161.5 58%
Endgame
70.1 25%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 348, 10254, 1699
77
/ 100 compatProjected
278 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 348, 10254, 1699
Auto
38.2 14%
Teleop
153.2 57%
Endgame
78.2 29%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.55
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score279.3pts
Blue projected score278pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 1.3
- Score range
- 243–314
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
664.8Season APEX610.7
47Auto38.2
161.5Teleop153.2
70.1Endgame78.2
40Consistency17
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 47 | 70 |
| teleop | 138 | 155 |
| endgame | 88 | 85 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 278 | 310 |
Result
Final score
278 – 310
Prediction missed · off by 16.7 pts
Match videos
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