Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.01 – 120.2

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 29.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.3 ±10.7

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 54.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 12.57Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±11

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 12.57Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 36.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 70.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 10254, 1474

/ 100 compat

Projected

133 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5000, 10254, 1474

Auto

40.7 33%

Teleop

58.9 47%

Endgame

25.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 78, 1153, 1757

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 1153, 1757

Auto

28.3 24%

Teleop

54.3 46%

Endgame

34.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133pts

Blue projected score120.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 93–160
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.3Season APEX423.9

40.7Auto28.3

58.9Teleop54.3

25.3Endgame34.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	86	102
endgame	32	49
foul	0	0
total	144	168

Result

Final score

144 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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