Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.48 – 112.85

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548 ±11.2

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 94.72Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 24.15Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 22.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.4 ±11.7

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 66.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 21.71Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 24.57Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 10973, 5494

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 10973, 5494

Auto

33.7 24%

Teleop

77.9 56%

Endgame

28.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 4176, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 4176, 3623

Auto

20.6 18%

Teleop

53.1 48%

Endgame

37.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.5pts

Blue projected score112.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.6
Score range: 87–167
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 144.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548Season APEX228.4

33.7Auto20.6

77.9Teleop53.1

28.7Endgame37.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	15
teleop	198	37
endgame	5	12
foul	0	10
total	310	74

Result

Final score

310 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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