Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.75 – 60.7

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.7 ±11.2

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 49.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 145.29Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 19.82Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±12.8

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -5.28Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 25.29Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 40.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1735, 5000, 3464

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 5000, 3464

Auto

39.6 19%

Teleop

116.1 55%

Endgame

56.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1474, 6367, 5112

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1474, 6367, 5112

Auto

20.6 36%

Teleop

36.0 63%

Endgame

0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.8pts

Blue projected score60.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.1
Score range: 29–247
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 179.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.7Season APEX254.2

39.6Auto20.6

116.1Teleop36

56Endgame0.2

10Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	21
teleop	146	68
endgame	100	52
foul	0	0
total	302	141

Result

Final score

302 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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