Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.65 – 221.35

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±11.2

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 61.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 22.65Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 254.62Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.7 ±11.2

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 84.18Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 30.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 106.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10066, 3623, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10066, 3623, 5687

Auto

88.5 27%

Teleop

182.6 55%

Endgame

62.0 19%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 2168, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1119, 2168, 10254

Auto

42.3 19%

Teleop

119.4 53%

Endgame

61.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score338.7pts

Blue projected score221.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.3
Score range: 189–371
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 177.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.3Season APEX441.7

88.5Auto42.3

182.6Teleop119.4

62Endgame61.8

10Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	22
teleop	154	87
endgame	70	96
foul	15	30
total	298	235

Result

Final score

298 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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