Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.41 – 141.61

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.1 ±8.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 26.46Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 119.73Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 104.22Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.8 ±10.4

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 49.63Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 50.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 348, 6324, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 6324, 10254

Auto

49.7 21%

Teleop

122.8 51%

Endgame

68.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5112, 2079, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5112, 2079, 1735

Auto

44.9 35%

Teleop

71.1 55%

Endgame

12.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.4pts

Blue projected score141.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.8
Score range: 110–282
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.1Season APEX428.8

49.7Auto44.9

122.8Teleop71.1

68.2Endgame12.3

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	33
teleop	160	65
endgame	103	20
foul	0	0
total	294	118

Result

Final score

294 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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