Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.35 – 95.7

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478 ±12

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 23.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 55.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 226.64Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.6 ±13.3

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 36.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 30.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 28.66Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5494, 10066, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5494, 10066, 1768

Auto

56.8 19%

Teleop

163.5 56%

Endgame

72.2 25%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6333, 2168, 2262

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6333, 2168, 2262

Auto

9.9 11%

Teleop

50.6 55%

Endgame

32.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.4pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.7
Score range: 64–338
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478Season APEX252.6

56.8Auto9.9

163.5Teleop50.6

72.2Endgame32.2

19Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	31
teleop	193	41
endgame	88	29
foul	5	5
total	363	106

Result

Final score

363 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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