Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.54 – 46.27

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.8 ±11.7

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 12.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 8.73Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 49.67Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±12.8

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 29.46Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -3.51Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 20.32Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3719, 8544, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3719, 8544, 1153

Auto

22.1 32%

Teleop

36.0 52%

Endgame

10.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 1474, 3464

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 1474, 3464

Auto

18.5 45%

Teleop

27.3 66%

Endgame

-4.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.5pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 14–103
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 177.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.8Season APEX253.5

22.1Auto18.5

36Teleop27.3

10.6Endgame-4.6

12Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	15
teleop	130	14
endgame	32	34
foul	0	0
total	197	63

Result

Final score

197 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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