Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.12 – 36.17

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.3 ±11.7

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -11.29Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 45.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 41.08Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±11.7

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 6.15Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 16.06Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 13.96Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1474, 1735, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1474, 1735, 1153

Auto

25.0 36%

Teleop

38.2 56%

Endgame

5.5 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8544, 3464, 1350

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 3464, 1350

Auto

14.7 47%

Teleop

15.3 49%

Endgame

1.5 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.1pts

Blue projected score36.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39
Score range: 4–107
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 175.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.3Season APEX264.5

25Auto14.7

38.2Teleop15.3

5.5Endgame1.5

3Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	5
teleop	98	44
endgame	42	33
foul	0	0
total	177	82

Result

Final score

177 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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