Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.25 – 152.67

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±12.8

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 61.14Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 19.91Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 40.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±11.6

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 36.25Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 78.14Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 38.28Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2079, 3719, 2262

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2079, 3719, 2262

Auto

19.3 17%

Teleop

69.8 61%

Endgame

25.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 663, 1119, 6333

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 663, 1119, 6333

Auto

34.3 22%

Teleop

70.4 46%

Endgame

48.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.3pts

Blue projected score152.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.4
Score range: 89–185
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.8Season APEX278.4

19.3Auto34.3

69.8Teleop70.4

25.6Endgame48.7

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	31
teleop	15	44
endgame	6	65
foul	0	0
total	41	140

Result

Final score

41 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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