Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.04 – 259.84

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±10.5

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 33.52Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 71.72Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 28.8Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.1 ±9.8

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 103.79Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 127.17Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 28.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6620, 1699, 348

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6620, 1699, 348

Auto

22.2 18%

Teleop

55.0 44%

Endgame

46.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 78, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 78, 10973

Auto

38.2 15%

Teleop

153.4 61%

Endgame

61.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score259.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.8
Score range: 102–292
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416Season APEX606.1

22.2Auto38.2

55Teleop153.4

46.6Endgame61.6

48Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	57
teleop	51	156
endgame	59	64
foul	0	0
total	137	277

Result

Final score

137 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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