Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.51 – 349.48

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.5 ±13.3

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 59.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 22.38Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 26.61Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 745.8 ±8.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 123.3Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 214.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 11.99Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10066, 4176, 1757

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10066, 4176, 1757

Auto

39.5 36%

Teleop

39.0 35%

Endgame

32.3 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 1768, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5000, 1768, 10063

Auto

54.7 16%

Teleop

182.8 55%

Endgame

94.9 29%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.5pts

Blue projected score349.5pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -241
Score range: 78–380
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 173.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.5Season APEX745.8

39.5Auto54.7

39Teleop182.8

32.3Endgame94.9

29Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	87
teleop	36	307
endgame	39	107
foul	0	0
total	111	501

Result

Final score

111 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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