Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.18 – 179.46

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 258

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.5 ±10.4

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 52.34Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 56.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 88.6Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353 ±12.2

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 33.42Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 117.78Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 28.26Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 5112, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1153, 5112, 1119

Auto

48.5 25%

Teleop

106.2 54%

Endgame

41.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2262, 78, 6620

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2262, 78, 6620

Auto

4.0 2%

Teleop

129.6 70%

Endgame

50.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.2pts

Blue projected score179.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 148–228
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.5Season APEX353

48.5Auto4

106.2Teleop129.6

41.9Endgame50.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	35
teleop	56	125
endgame	3	83
foul	5	15
total	114	258

Result

Final score

114 – 258

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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