Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.37 – 98.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.6 ±11.2

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 17.53Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 19.42Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 107.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.3 ±12.8

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 18.2Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 46.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 34.21Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6367, 1350, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6367, 1350, 10254

Auto

24.0 17%

Teleop

72.8 52%

Endgame

43.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3719, 1735, 2168

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3719, 1735, 2168

Auto

8.0 8%

Teleop

60.3 64%

Endgame

26.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.4pts

Blue projected score98.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.5
Score range: 68–175
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.6Season APEX200.3

24Auto8

72.8Teleop60.3

43.2Endgame26.6

91Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	76	59
endgame	10	22
foul	0	0
total	102	106

Result

Final score

102 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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