Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.88 – 137.02

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 652.4 ±9.4

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 28.82Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 64.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 216.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±12.4

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 110.92Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -19.82Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 45.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10973, 2079, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 2079, 1768

Auto

59.0 20%

Teleop

186.9 62%

Endgame

55.2 18%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6324, 1474, 10066

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6324, 1474, 10066

Auto

37.2 27%

Teleop

70.6 50%

Endgame

32.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score309.9pts

Blue projected score137pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172.9
Score range: 106–341
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 553 vs event baseline 172.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

652.4Season APEX374.5

59Auto37.2

186.9Teleop70.6

55.2Endgame32.2

8Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	36
teleop	140	116
endgame	45	82
foul	60	15
total	304	249

Result

Final score

304 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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