Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.13 – 361.16

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 143.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591.8 ±10.5

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 115.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 25.69Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 67.78Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.9 ±10.7

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 264.86Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 54.12Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 42.18Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 663, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5000, 663, 1699

Auto

34.5 18%

Teleop

94.1 48%

Endgame

66.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 348, 4176

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 348, 4176

Auto

92.6 27%

Teleop

190.8 55%

Endgame

64.3 18%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.1pts

Blue projected score361.2pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152
Score range: 178–392
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591.8Season APEX511.9

34.5Auto92.6

94.1Teleop190.8

66.2Endgame64.3

89Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	101
teleop	122	31
endgame	94	16
foul	5	0
total	283	148

Result

Final score

283 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 143.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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