Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.96 – 58.07

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.1 ±11

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 34.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 20.24Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 1.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±12.2

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 29.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 24.79Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 3.36Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6333, 3623, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6333, 3623, 8544

Auto

22.7 51%

Teleop

14.5 32%

Endgame

7.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5494, 1757, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5494, 1757, 10063

Auto

26.6 43%

Teleop

16.9 27%

Endgame

18.6 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 25–89
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.1Season APEX272

22.7Auto26.6

14.5Teleop16.9

7.6Endgame18.6

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	44	39
endgame	39	30
foul	0	0
total	104	94

Result

Final score

104 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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