Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.39 – 233.92

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.4 ±11.7

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 57.35Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 22.77Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 45.27Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.6 ±11.4

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 25.68Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 199.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 8.49Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5112, 3719, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5112, 3719, 61

Auto

35.9 29%

Teleop

53.0 44%

Endgame

32.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6620, 1768, 3464

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6620, 1768, 3464

Auto

26.3 12%

Teleop

146.2 66%

Endgame

49.9 22%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.4pts

Blue projected score233.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.5
Score range: 94–265
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 172.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.4Season APEX465.6

35.9Auto26.3

53Teleop146.2

32.8Endgame49.9

2Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	55
teleop	38	204
endgame	26	75
foul	5	0
total	98	334

Result

Final score

98 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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