Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.09 – 213.08

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.8 ±11.7

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 22.32Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 94.53Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 73.24Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.4 ±11.2

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 114.92Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 39.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 58.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6367, 1119, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6367, 1119, 1699

Auto

37.1 20%

Teleop

98.9 53%

Endgame

51.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 4176, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5000, 4176, 2079

Auto

57.4 27%

Teleop

118.6 56%

Endgame

37.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.1pts

Blue projected score213.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23
Score range: 159–244
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.8Season APEX553.4

37.1Auto57.4

98.9Teleop118.6

51.8Endgame37.5

95Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	50
teleop	36	108
endgame	68	61
foul	5	10
total	139	229

Result

Final score

139 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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