Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.92 – 96.64

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.2 ±11.7

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 112.21Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 49.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 30.73Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.9 ±11.7

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 2.22Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 47.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 46.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 78, 1735, 5494

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 1735, 5494

Auto

34.1 18%

Teleop

118.1 62%

Endgame

37.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10063, 10066, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 10066, 61

Auto

33.1 34%

Teleop

19.5 20%

Endgame

44.9 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.9pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.3
Score range: 66–224
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 172.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.2Season APEX275.9

34.1Auto33.1

118.1Teleop19.5

37.4Endgame44.9

2Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	45
teleop	95	39
endgame	73	26
foul	0	0
total	203	110

Result

Final score

203 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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