Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.71 – 148.78

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.5 ±13.9

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 30.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 18.77Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 26.34Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.2 ±11.7

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 126.59Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -4.41Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 26.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2168, 4176, 6367

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 4176, 6367

Auto

18.1 26%

Teleop

36.0 51%

Endgame

16.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 78, 1474, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 1474, 8544

Auto

27.5 19%

Teleop

80.5 54%

Endgame

40.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.7pts

Blue projected score148.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.1
Score range: 40–185
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.5Season APEX312.2

18.1Auto27.5

36Teleop80.5

16.2Endgame40.2

44Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	48	14
endgame	12	16
foul	0	0
total	76	44

Result

Final score

76 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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