Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.09 – 332.43

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253 ±12.7

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 29.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 6.47Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 37.03Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.2 ±11.2

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 261.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 44.23Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 26.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1757, 3464, 6333

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1757, 3464, 6333

Auto

26.6 40%

Teleop

28.0 42%

Endgame

12.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5687, 1153, 2168

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 1153, 2168

Auto

107.5 33%

Teleop

182.0 56%

Endgame

35.1 11%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.1pts

Blue projected score332.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -259.3
Score range: 42–363
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253Season APEX533.2

26.6Auto107.5

28Teleop182

12.7Endgame35.1

61Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	44
teleop	30	257
endgame	12	107
foul	0	0
total	68	408

Result

Final score

68 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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