Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.52 – 228.95

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.2 ±11.2

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 34.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 117.81Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 28.81Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.7 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 187.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX -1.91Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 43.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2262, 10254, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2262, 10254, 3623

Auto

15.3 8%

Teleop

118.3 65%

Endgame

49.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 8544, 348

/ 100 compat

Projected

229 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 8544, 348

Auto

51.0 24%

Teleop

106.9 49%

Endgame

59.1 27%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.5pts

Blue projected score229pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.4
Score range: 151–260
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.2Season APEX570.7

15.3Auto51

118.3Teleop106.9

49.7Endgame59.1

29Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	50
teleop	58	139
endgame	62	64
foul	20	55
total	159	308

Result

Final score

159 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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