Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.28 – 226.29

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±11.7

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 53.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 23.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 57.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±11.7

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 108.57Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 87.35Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 30.37Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10066, 10973, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10066, 10973, 1735

Auto

36.8 29%

Teleop

62.7 49%

Endgame

29.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 78, 1119, 4176

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 78, 1119, 4176

Auto

30.3 13%

Teleop

130.8 56%

Endgame

73.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.3pts

Blue projected score226.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92
Score range: 104–256
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.6Season APEX342.6

36.8Auto30.3

62.7Teleop130.8

29.1Endgame73.1

2Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	54
teleop	52	187
endgame	17	65
foul	0	0
total	86	306

Result

Final score

86 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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