Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.51 – 251.59

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.1 ±9.8

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 52.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX -9.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 251.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 632.8 ±10.7

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 111.31Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 26.06Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 114.22Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2079, 8544, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2079, 8544, 5687

Auto

99.2 34%

Teleop

166.9 58%

Endgame

22.2 8%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6324, 3719, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6324, 3719, 5000

Auto

40.2 16%

Teleop

136.1 54%

Endgame

74.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294.5pts

Blue projected score251.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.9
Score range: 221–326
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 629 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.1Season APEX632.8

99.2Auto40.2

166.9Teleop136.1

22.2Endgame74.7

94Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	132	26
teleop	189	157
endgame	41	74
foul	5	5
total	367	262

Result

Final score

367 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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