Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.04 – 151.6

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.8 ±11.7

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 27.27Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 40.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 21.91Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.2 ±12.8

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 28.43Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 64.55Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 58.62Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4176, 1153, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4176, 1153, 10973

Auto

42.0 45%

Teleop

42.7 46%

Endgame

8.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2168, 5112, 10066

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 5112, 10066

Auto

35.1 24%

Teleop

80.9 55%

Endgame

30.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.6
Score range: 59–183
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.8Season APEX298.2

42Auto35.1

42.7Teleop80.9

8Endgame30.9

60Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	46
teleop	64	69
endgame	22	14
foul	0	0
total	117	129

Result

Final score

117 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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