Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.86 – 101.78

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.1 ±11.7

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 20.63Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 12.18Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 103.05Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.8 ±11.7

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 41.72Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 30.41Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 29.65Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10063, 3464, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 3464, 1119

Auto

27.6 20%

Teleop

55.1 41%

Endgame

52.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 6367, 663

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 6367, 663

Auto

30.8 38%

Teleop

29.3 36%

Endgame

21.7 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.9pts

Blue projected score101.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.1
Score range: 71–167
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 174.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.1Season APEX300.8

27.6Auto30.8

55.1Teleop29.3

52.1Endgame21.7

40Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	27
teleop	16	24
endgame	13	19
foul	0	5
total	48	75

Result

Final score

48 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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