Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.53 – 134.99

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.6 ±9.8

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 75.65Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 44.58Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 50.3Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.8 ±12.2

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 18.74Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6367The ElectroLights

Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 39.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 76.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1119, 1735, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1119, 1735, 6324

Auto

47.0 29%

Teleop

60.4 37%

Endgame

55.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 6367, 6333

/ 100 compat

Projected

135 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 6367, 6333

Auto

40.9 34%

Teleop

79.9 67%

Endgame

-1.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.5pts

Blue projected score135pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.5
Score range: 104–202
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.6Season APEX325.8

47Auto40.9

60.4Teleop79.9

55.5Endgame-1.1

57Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	15
teleop	208	27
endgame	96	11
foul	0	5
total	354	58

Result

Final score

354 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 130.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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