Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.11 – 142.9

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145 ±13.9

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -24.56Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 73.17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 26.5Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.3 ±11.2

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 78.56Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 38.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 26.33Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1474, 5494, 3719

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1474, 5494, 3719

Auto

21.6 27%

Teleop

69.3 88%

Endgame

-12.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 10066, 5112

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10254, 10066, 5112

Auto

32.1 22%

Teleop

82.4 56%

Endgame

32.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.1pts

Blue projected score142.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.8
Score range: 45–173
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145Season APEX504.3

21.6Auto32.1

69.3Teleop82.4

-12Endgame32.6

110Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	72
teleop	20	143
endgame	13	73
foul	0	5
total	40	293

Result

Final score

40 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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