Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.48 – 109.03

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.7 ±11.6

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 43.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 30.8Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 15.51Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.4 ±10.4

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 19.23Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 62.5Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 27.3Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 663, 1757, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 663, 1757, 2079

Auto

22.1 25%

Teleop

34.2 38%

Endgame

32.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3623, 1153, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3623, 1153, 1699

Auto

10.0 10%

Teleop

52.6 52%

Endgame

38.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.5
Score range: 59–139
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.7Season APEX433.4

22.1Auto10

34.2Teleop52.6

32.6Endgame38

87Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	55
teleop	64	74
endgame	39	30
foul	0	0
total	133	159

Result

Final score

133 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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