Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.61 – 233.38

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.2 ±11.7

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 55.93Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 57.64Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 13.04Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.5 ±11.2

1350The Rambots

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 27.36Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 78.52Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 127.5Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2168, 61, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 61, 10973

Auto

46.2 37%

Teleop

41.0 33%

Endgame

36.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1350, 2262, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1350, 2262, 5000

Auto

28.4 12%

Teleop

124.8 55%

Endgame

74.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score233.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.8
Score range: 97–263
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.2Season APEX501.5

46.2Auto28.4

41Teleop124.8

36.2Endgame74.9

59Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	11
teleop	66	73
endgame	39	70
foul	0	0
total	133	154

Result

Final score

133 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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