Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.32 – 100.43

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 86.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.5 ±10.5

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX -6.01Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 92.52Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 0.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±13.9

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 18.3Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10066CephaloSquad

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 70.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 11.26Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3623, 5000, 6620

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3623, 5000, 6620

Auto

23.5 30%

Teleop

47.5 60%

Endgame

8.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3464, 10066, 3719

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3464, 10066, 3719

Auto

16.0 16%

Teleop

52.5 53%

Endgame

31.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.3pts

Blue projected score100.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.1
Score range: 57–130
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.5Season APEX199.4

23.5Auto16

47.5Teleop52.5

8.5Endgame31.1

207Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	34
teleop	135	15
endgame	70	3
foul	0	0
total	212	52

Result

Final score

212 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 86.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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