Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
62.92 – 101.53
38%62%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
100 – 66
Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 56.41Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX -13.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 29.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 61.77Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 9.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 348, 1757, 3623
44
/ 100 compatProjected
62.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 348, 1757, 3623
Auto
17.9 32%
Teleop
24.4 44%
Endgame
13.5 24%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3719, 1350, 4176
48
/ 100 compatProjected
101.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3719, 1350, 4176
Auto
7.6 8%
Teleop
48.8 50%
Endgame
41.5 42%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.82
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score62.9pts
Blue projected score101.5pts
Red win probability38%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -38.6
- Score range
- 33–132
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
315.1Season APEX176.1
17.9Auto7.6
24.4Teleop48.8
13.5Endgame41.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 18 |
| teleop | 33 | 29 |
| endgame | 37 | 19 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 100 | 66 |
Result
Final score
100 – 66
Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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