Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.37 – 74.94

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.4 ±10

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 106.51Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 52.42Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 53.44Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.8 ±10.4

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 26.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 45.85Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 5112, 6333

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 5112, 6333

Auto

46.5 22%

Teleop

111.9 52%

Endgame

54.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8544, 10973, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 10973, 1119

Auto

47.7 64%

Teleop

28.2 38%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.4pts

Blue projected score74.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.4
Score range: 46–241
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.4Season APEX371.8

46.5Auto47.7

111.9Teleop28.2

54.8Endgame-1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	39
teleop	212	27
endgame	52	40
foul	40	0
total	357	106

Result

Final score

357 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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