Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
119.97 – 136.88
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
290 – 178
Prediction missed · off by 105.6 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 41.35Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 39.55Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 39.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 29.63Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 62.43Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 44.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1153, 5000, 10066
58
/ 100 compatProjected
120 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 1153, 5000, 10066
Auto
20.7 19%
Teleop
62.5 58%
Endgame
24.7 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1699, 2262, 1735
61
/ 100 compatProjected
136.9 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1699, 2262, 1735
Auto
17.3 13%
Teleop
68.1 53%
Endgame
43.2 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score120pts
Blue projected score136.9pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -16.9
- Score range
- 91–166
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
560.8Season APEX386.2
20.7Auto17.3
62.5Teleop68.1
24.7Endgame43.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 67 | 24 |
| teleop | 150 | 87 |
| endgame | 73 | 52 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 290 | 178 |
Result
Final score
290 – 178
Prediction missed · off by 105.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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